Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 9.295197 10.359628 11.525571 12.902478 14.490429 16.271835 18.431995
2025-11-16 7.733305 9.111263 10.730147 12.790090 15.366695 18.516740 22.711571
2025-11-23 6.717541 8.205421 10.035853 12.485154 15.725729 19.937310 25.944930
2025-11-30 6.071851 7.635137 9.631565 12.416336 16.279138 21.570456 29.590101
2025-12-07 5.419904 6.970972 9.010656 11.951329 16.189170 22.250713 31.917832
2025-12-14 4.846755 6.350223 8.375615 11.377271 15.844848 22.476385 33.533725
2025-12-21 4.471447 5.962235 8.017305 11.144902 15.948692 23.345432 36.242780
2025-12-28 4.523225 6.167847 8.502936 12.181350 18.069924 27.592123 45.239720
2026-01-04 4.349737 6.032662 8.476475 12.429783 18.966294 29.955104 51.352473
2026-01-11 4.054366 5.695569 8.119873 12.122309 18.907864 30.668576 54.490053
2026-01-18 3.937765 5.616066 8.145869 12.425366 19.903266 33.355986 61.972806
2026-01-25 3.713732 5.357073 7.872300 12.206625 19.958182 34.312991 66.054001
2026-02-01 3.500658 5.109538 7.611455 12.007274 20.064062 35.453043 70.940095
2026-02-08 3.321919 4.905506 7.407268 11.888974 20.309223 36.908874 76.892777
2026-02-15 3.128792 4.666187 7.127799 11.611489 20.217608 37.658181 81.321794
2026-02-22 2.992468 4.510346 6.976012 11.548547 20.532293 39.299887 88.360132
2026-03-01 2.802629 4.256182 6.641824 11.123497 20.078701 39.206930 90.837299
2026-03-08 2.609909 3.987848 6.268439 10.598262 19.370981 38.457303 91.374417
2026-03-15 2.483719 3.824749 6.068156 10.385496 19.291005 39.135162 96.127836
2026-03-22 2.551490 3.992386 6.456548 11.333800 21.778625 46.264206 122.167764
2026-03-29 2.502674 3.956359 6.477942 11.560837 22.717767 49.773895 138.141457
2026-04-05 2.383592 3.791870 6.256110 11.279828 22.477479 50.217125 143.890724
2026-04-12 2.349471 3.775201 6.305014 11.556802 23.557220 54.338794 164.207480